基于中国2004—2013年统计数据,在分品种考察主要粮食作物(大豆、玉米、稻谷及小麦)主产省(区)农户粮食生产对价格和收益反应差异的基础上,进一步按非农收入比重分组考察了高农业收入占比组与低农业收入占比组省份的反应差异。结果显示:各品种粮食生产都存在较强惯性,且高农业收入组的生产惯性强于低农业收入组;成本因素对粮食生产存在显著阻碍作用;从长短期弹性看,各粮食品种高农业收入占比组价格和收益对播种面积的影响均高于低农业收入占比组。
Abstract: Based on the statistics data from 2004 to 2013 and the analysis of differences in price and income responses of grain production in the main producing provinces of major grain crops (soybean, maize, rice and wheat), this paper divides samples into groups according to the rate of non-agricultural income in the whole family-run and analyzes the different responses between high agricultural income groups and low agricultural income groups. The results show that there is strong inertia on each of grain varieties production and the inertia in high groups is stronger than that in low groups. The cost significantly hinders the grain production. In terms of short and long-run elasticity, the price and yield of high agricultural income groups have more effects on planting area than that of low groups for the varieties of grain.