基于泰尔指数方法,以人口数为权重对粮食生产区位差异变迁导致的产需格局差异变化进行了考量,并分析了区域间差异、区域内差异的变动及对总差异的贡献,结果表明:中国粮食生产区域差异存在明显的阶段性特征,2000年后差异明显增大;从总差异的组成看,区域间差异在2000年超过区域内差异成为粮食产需差异的主要因素,且两者贡献率差距呈增大趋势;主产区、主销区和平衡区粮食生产差异对总差异的贡献差别明显:主产区贡献较高且相对稳定,主销区和平衡区贡献较低且呈下降趋势。
Based on the method of Theil index, the author analyzed the regional difference of grain production in China and examined the pattern changes between production and demand through comparing the Theil index computed by taking population as weights,and also analyzed the changes of inter-region difference, intra-region difference and their contributions to the total difference. The results show that China’s grain production regional differences exist obvious stage characteristics, and the differences have become bigger since 2000; From then on, the differences among regions become the main factors in the regional differences of grain production, and the contribution rate is enlarging; there are large differences among the contribution of grain producing areas, grain selling area and sales balance areas to the total regional differences of grain production: the contribution of the main producing areas are keeping a high level and relatively stable, while that of the other two areas is stable in a lower level and is falling.