基于1961-2010年中国大陆年度地震损失数据,对年度地震风险损失进行了分布拟合;利用随机模拟技术对基于weibull分布的地震风险损失进行了模拟;采用VaR方法计算了各个风险地区的保费规模,以此研究地震保险的价格。研究结果表明:不同的置信度下地震保险保费规模存在明显的差异,置信度越高,所需要的保费规模越多。利用高孟潭提出的地震风险区划图,进一步测算了各个区划的人均保费,以此表示地震保险价格。测算结果表明:置信度、区划等级对人均保费影响明显,高置信度与高等级的区划导致较高的价格。
This article uses earthquake losses between 1961 and 2010 to simulate earthquake loss.Through stochastic simulations based on weibull,we calculate the insurance fees using VaR.Our results indicate that different confidences lead to different fees,the higher the coefficient,the bigger the fees.We also weigh on different risk area and calculate the insurance fees per people,which represent the price of earthquake insurance.The results indicate that price varies greatly due to different risk areas and confidences.