巨灾保险需求在我国研究尚不多,但国外实践证明,需求对巨灾保险制度的效果影响很大。使用广东、浙江、福建、江西及海南五省市部分产险保费收入的数据,采用面板分析方法研究其影响因素,研究发现:GDP和台风损失对保费收入解释力度加大,政府救灾支出与保费收入负相关,验证了政府支出的“挤出效应”。而居民风险态度、农村房屋价值等解释力度较低。基于实证研究,提出了在巨灾保险制度设计中应注意充分发挥现有保险产品的作用,重视救助保障体系的基础性作用和提高巨灾保险参保率等建议。
Study on catastrophe insurance demand in China is far from enough while practices in foreign countries show that effects of demand for catastrophe insurance system may have a big impact. A study was conducted on the basis of part of property insurance premium income data of five provinces as Zhejiang,Fujian,Guangdong, Hainan and Jiangxi by using a panel analysis. The results showed that typhoon damage and GDP have the positive correlation with premium income, however government disaster relief payments have a negative correlation. Based on the above empirical research, proposals were put forward that a catastrophe insurance system should help play full role of the existing insurance products, stress should be put on government bailout, and the rate of catastrophe insurance should increase.