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中文摘要：
将流域入湖的氮磷负荷分为点源和非点源两部分，基于SCS模型和USLE模型，分别计算流域入湖的溶解态和颗粒态非点源负荷，根据工业、城镇生活及规模养殖废水排放，计算了流域入湖的点源负荷。通过计算的入湖负荷和现有的湖泊氮磷浓度数据，建立了湖泊氮磷质量守恒模型。根据计算的逐年入湖氮磷负荷和建立的湖泊氮磷质量守恒模型，逆推逐年的湖泊氮磷浓度，确定湖泊氮磷参照状态。应用建立的模型推断程海的TP、TN参照状态分别为0．014mg／L和0．247mg／L。构建的湖泊氮磷参照状态推断模型，所需资料少，概念清晰，在资料缺乏的其他湖泊流域具有推广应用价值。
英文摘要：
The loadings of total phosphorus and total nitrogen entering a lake were divided into two categories： point source and non-point source. The SCS （Soil Conservation Service） and the USLE （Universal Soil Loss Equation） models were used to calculate dissolved and particulate non-point source loadings, while the point source loading was estimated from the discharge of industrial, domestic and livestock wastewater. The mass conservation model of total phosphorus and total nitrogen in a lake was established, which was built upon the estimated input loadings of total phosphorus and total nitrogen entering a lake as well as the current concentration of total phosphorus and total nitrogen in the lake. Based on the calculated loadings entering a lake from the watershed and atmospheric deposition, along with the mass conservation model established, the previous annual average concentration of total phosphorus and total nitrogen in a lake was obtained by backward inference. Then, the reference condition of total phosphorus and total nitrogen, Which was minimally impacted by human activities, could be established. The reference conditions of total phosphorus and total nitrogen in Chenghai Lake are 0.014 mg/L and 0.247 mg/Lwith the application of the proposed model. The reference conditions inference model is of clear physical concept, and less data required. Thus, the proposed methodology is applicable to other lakes under similar situations.
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