中文摘要：

从车主经济理性的角度,提出了促进报废汽车产业良性循环的＂养老金＂制度——＂先预缴再返还＂的报废汽车逆向回收发展基金制度。以小型载客汽车为例,建立系统动力学模型对该基金制度进行模拟仿真。分析表明：该基金制度是可行有效的,不仅能明显提高报废汽车正规渠道的回收率,而且可以作为报废汽车产业发展宏观调控的一种有效手段。

英文摘要：

Based on vehicle-owner economic rationality, the paper proposed a pension institution ai- ming to promote scrap vehicles industry to be a benign cycle, which is a development fund system （DFS） operated by ＂pre-paid, then return＂ mechanism. Take small-size passenger vehicles as an example, a sys- tem dynamics model is established to make simulation analysis for DFS pattern. The result shows that the DFS mechanism is feasible and effective. The pension system not only can enhance the recovery rate for regular channels, but also can be an effective macro-control method for the development of scrap vehicles industry.