中文摘要：

利用长、株、潭城市群近年的土地利用调查数据及相关社会经济资料,从耕地资源的时序变化入手,宏观分析了该区域耕地动态变化的趋势,并先将主成分分析和多元逐步回归相结合,定量研究了耕地数量变化的驱动机制,然后运用计量经济学中的协整分析与Granger因果关系检验法来进一步验证驱动因子与耕地数量变化的内在关系。结果表明：采用数理统计分析法得出经济发展和人口增长以及国家相关政策是影响耕地减少的主要动因;但是,从计量经济学的角度分析进一步发现耕地数量的变化与因退耕还林政策导致的林地面积变化这两者之间不存在协整关系,无法进行Granger检验;而因农民人均纯收入增加引起该区域耕地数量显著变化的说法也不十分确切。研究结果将为控制耕地减少速度、加强耕地保护、促进土地合理利用和农业持续发展提供科学依据。

英文摘要：

Cultivated land is the core of land and plays a fundamental role in ensuring food security.With rapid social and economic development in China,cultivated land change has become increasingly marked.A great deal of modeling work has been done to detect driving forces of cultivated land change.Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations are a typical zone exhibiting significant decreases in cultivated land in Hunan Province.Due to the agricultural structure adjustment,＂Grain-for-Green Project＂,and occupation of cultivated land,Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations have experienced dramatic reductions in the area of cultivated land,showing an increasingly aggravated contradiction between cultivated land supply and demand.To understand the characteristics of the cultivated land change and its driving forces,the authors performed a study on Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations characterized by rapid urbanization.In this work,temporal trends in cultivated land change were systematically analyzed on the basis of statistical and survey data regarding land use in the study area.Primary contributors for cultivated land change were examined by the principal component analysis（PCA）and multiple regressive analysis.The internal relationships between the cultivated land quantity and the major driving forces were verified by the co-integration test and Granger causality test analyses.Results show that the cultivated land quantity in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomerations has decreased during recent 15 years,which is probably due to the rapid socio-economic development and some public policies.It was also found that there don＇t exist the co-integration relationships between the cultivated land change and the increase in forest land area resulting from the policy on Sloping Land Conversion（to forests） Program（SLCP）.Therefore,it is difficult to carry out the Granger causality test in this case;and the argument that per capita net income of rural residents shows effects on significant c