中文摘要：

优化选择一定的行动策略能促使任务联盟向期望的目标效果演化。考虑部分事件／行动在不同时段下影响强度不相一致，使用考虑影响值时变的动态影响网（DINs）对联盟演化过程行动策略优选问题进行建模，给出因果强度逻辑下概率传播参数设计的一致性条件，并基于因果强度逻辑进行影响值计算。结合空中进攻作战想定案例进行仿真验证，计算结果表明，通过部分事件／行动节点影响值变化下进行策略优选提高了对因果关系的建模能力。

英文摘要：

Selecting optimized action strategy can make the task coalition evolve towards the expected operation effect. Considering that the influence strength of events/actions is not consistent in different time horizons, a time-varying Dynamic Influence Nets （DINs） was utilized to model the action strategy optimization in the process of task coalition evolution. Based on causal strength logic, the consistent condition of probability propagation was given and the influence constant was calculated out. Simulation was made to an aerial attack campaign case. The result shows that the action strategy optimization considering the variation of influence constants can improve the capability of cause and effect modeling.