基于长期与短期两个视角,采用TY因果检验、广义脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法,系统考察国际油价及宏观经济变量对我国黄金、白银和铂金3种贵金属价格的冲击影响,以及在此冲击作用下我国贵金属价格的反馈作用。结果表明:国际油价在长、短期内都是贵金属价格变动的重要原因,而汇率则只在短期内对贵金属价格产生影响,利率在预测贵金属价格上则处于失效状态。此外,在短期内,贵金属价格对国际油价与利率也存在一定反馈作用。
From the perspective of long-term and short-term, the methods of TY causality test, generalized impulse response function, variance decomposition were used to investigate the impacts of international oil prices and macroeconomic variables on Chinese gold, silver and platinum prices, but also the feedback effects of Chinese precious metal prices under this impact. The results show that international oil prices play an important role in precious metal price variation both in long-term and short-term, and exchange rate only has an effect in short-term, while interest rate is ineffective in predicting precious metal prices. In addition, precious metal prices have some feedback effects on international oil prices and interest rate in short-term.