中文摘要：

以2013年曝出的高盛铝价操纵案为例，基于波动性分析和事件分析法对金属资源跨期现市场操纵进行机理分析和判别研究，为金属资源跨期现市场操纵的判别提供有益参考。研究发现：在操纵期间，期货和现货价格序列呈现出“非自然特征”，进一步通过事件分析法得出在不同事件窗口都有显著为正的累计超额收益率，说明高盛在此期间确实对铝价进行了操纵。在防范跨期现市场操纵的过程中，应尽快建立完善的跨期现市场监管、风险防范体系，以及跨市场信息交流机制，加强对投资者相关法律、法规的教育，并完善我国金属市场仓储制度。

英文摘要：

Taking the case of aluminum price manipulation by Goldman Sachs in2013as an example,the present essay analyzes and discerns the mechanism of the manipulation of metal resources across the futures and spot market based on volatility analysis and event analysis,which provides useful reference for the judgment of metal resources across the futures and spot market manipulation.It is found that during the manipulation period,the sequence of futures and spot price shows“unnatural characteristics”,and that through event analysis,the cumulative excess returns are significantly positive at different event windows,indicating that Goldman Sachs does manipulate aluminum prices.In the course of preventing the cross-market manipulation,we should establish perfect cross-market supervision,risk prevention system and cross-market information exchange mechanism as soon as possible,strengthen the education of investors on related laws and regulations,and improve China’s metal market storage system.