中文摘要：

文章基于ARIMA模型对非平稳时间序列良好的短期预测特性,采用该方法对“十三五”期间中国铁矿石消费量与对外依存度进行了模型构建和预测分析,所建模型的拟合效果和预测精度较佳。预测结果表明,“十三五”期间中国铁矿石消费量将趋向于缓慢上升至零增长率的顶点,对外依存度则将在经过高位平台后拐入下降趋势。

英文摘要：

This paper adopts the ARIMA model, which has a good short-term prediction of non-stationary time series, to make a model and prediction analysis of China＇ s iron ore consumption and foreign-trade dependence during ＂the 13th Five-Year Plan＂ period. The established model has relatively better imitative effect and forecast accuracy. The prediction results show that during ＂the 13th Five-Year Plan＂ period, China＇ s iron ore consumption will slowly rise to the peak with zero growth rate, and that China＇s iron ore foreign-trade dependence will turn to downtrend after passing a high level platform.