对中国碳减排研究进行文献回顾,以Ghost投入产出模型为基础,采用LMDI分解法探讨我国产业碳减排驱动因素的影响效应。实证分析表明:1)经济规模扩张和产业关联强化是推动我国碳排放总量快速增长的主要推手,碳减排技术进步是实现碳减排的有效手段;2)产业结构由第一、二产业向第三产业调整拉高了中国产业碳排放总量,但作用效果相对较小,产业结构调整产生正向作用明显高于负向作用。
The paper reviews the documents about carbon emission reduction in China. Based on the Ghost input-output model, the LMDI decomposition method is adopted to discuss the driving factors of China's industrial carbon emissions reduction and their influence. The empirical analysis reveals that: 1) Economic expansion and strengthen of industrial linkage are the main driving factors for the rapid growth of China's carbon emissions. And carbon reduction technology progress is the effective means to realize industrial carbon emissions reduction; 2)Industrial structure adjustment from the first and second industry to tertiary industry may lift China's industrial carbon emissions, but its effects are relatively small. Positive effect and negative effect are produced by industry structure adjustment, and positive effect is slightly superior to negative effect.