中文摘要：

以中国产业部门为研究对象．基于投入产出技术分别构建需求拉动下和供给驱动下的碳排放模型，采用碳平均传播长度（APL）指标测算产业部门之间的碳距离。衡量产业部门的碳波及效应。并区分后向碳APL和前向碳APL识别产业部门的碳波及链。实证分析表明．第二产业是中国能源消费碳排放的大户．碳排放量离达165136．884万t．所占比例达到整个产业部门碳排放的98．23％．尤其是炼焦化工金属产品制造业和电力燃气及水的生产供应业。所占比例高达87．52％．其中，电力燃气及水的生产供应业的碳排放强度最大．为2．123t／万元。计算并对比各部门后向碳APL和前向碳APL的平均值和标准差．结果显示前向碳APL数值较大且分散，说明在“需求拉动经济”的政策背景下，需求拉动作用下的产业部门碳波及效应较供给驱动作用下的碳波及效应更为显著。进一步对各部门碳供给产业和碳需求产业进行识别．发现产业系统的碳波及链呈现出错综复杂的网状结构而非单一的线性链条．机械设备制造业和炼焦化工金属产品制造业位于碳波及链的上游。采掘业和电力燃气及水的生产供应业两大部门位于碳波及链的末端．农林牧渔业、纺织皮革木材造纸制造业、食品制造及烟草加工业、交通运输仓储和邮政业等部门之间相互关联和波及。互相转移和吸收碳排放。因此．产业部门节能减排工作的顺利实施．必须从产业系统总体的角度进行科学规划．清楚地认识到各个产业部门在产业碳波及链中的功能和作用，通过纵向和横向的沟通与竞合．推动部门自身和其他部门之间的协同减排。

英文摘要：

With the Chinese industrial sectors as the object, the demand-driven and supply-driven carbon emission models are first built based on the input-output technique, and then the carbon propagation effects are measured by computing the distance between different industrial sectors with the average propagation length （APL） index for carbon emission. Based on this measurement, the carbon propagation chain of industrial sectors is finally identified using the backward carbon APL and forward carbon APL. The empirical analysis shows that the carbon emission of the second industry is 1 651 368 840 ton accounting for 98.23% of the whole carbon emissions of all industrial sectors. For this reason, the second industry is responsible for the major carbon emission. Especially, the carbon emission of coking coal, chemical and metal manufacture sector and the electricity, gas and water production/supply sector make up 87.52% of the whole carbon emission of all industrial sectors, where the electricity, gas and water production/supply sector is the most remarkable one in carbon emission intensity with 2. 123 ton per 10 000 Yuan. The computation and comparison results of the mean value and standard deviation of the backward carbon APL and forward carbon APL indexes show that the forward carbon APL is big and decentralized, and that the demand-driven carbon propogation effect is more remarkable than the supply-driven one under the demand-drive-economy background. The further identifications of carbon supply industry and carbon demand industry show that the carbon propagation chain presents an intricate network structure rather than simple linear structure. In this network structure, the machinery equipment manufacturing sector and coking coal, chemical and metal manufacture sector are in the upstream of the carbon propagation chain, while the mining sector and electricity, gas and water production/supply sector are in the downstream. For the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector, textile, leather, wood and