中文摘要：

本文以产业部门为研究对象,以＂至2015年全国碳排放强度较2010年下降17%＂为碳减排目标对中国产业层面碳排放总量进行分摊,以明确各个产业部门的碳排放责任。基于分配效率的视角,以＂非期望产出作投入法＂为指导,将各部门碳排放量作为投入变量,能源消耗量、城镇单位就业人员数和总产出作为产出变量,构建了投入导向型的碳排放零和收益DEA分摊模型,并通过预测2015年的数据比较了中国15个产业部门碳排放的BCC效率和ZSG-DEA效率,得到了达到DEA有效边界的分配方案,发现电力/热力/燃气及水生产和供应业、炼焦及石油加工业、采矿业、木材加工及造纸印刷业、食品制造及烟草加工业依次承担着较大的碳排放责任,其余10个产业部门也是未来发展低碳技术的重要部门。

英文摘要：

Taking the industrial sectors as study object,with the objective of ＂in 2015,reducing the carbon emission intensity to 17% of that in 2010＂,the total carbon emissions are apportioned to clarify the reduction responsibility in the industrial sectors. Guided by the method of an unexpected output as an input,the input- oriented zero- sum- gain data envelopment analysis model is constructed in perspective of allocation efficiencies,where the input variable is the carbon emissions and the output variables are the energy consumptions,employment numbers in urban units and the total outputs. The prediction of data in 2015 shows the BCC efficiency and ZSG- DEA efficiency of carbon emissions in 15 industrial sectors in China. The allocation scheme is finally given such that the DEA effective frontier is achieved. According to the computation results,the electricity,heating power,gas and water production / supply sector,coking and petrochemical processing industry,mining industry,timber processing and paper making,food manufacturing sectors / tobacco sectors bear the greater responsibility in emission reductions in turn,and the remaining10 sectors are also important in the development of low- carbon technology in the future.