中文摘要：

本文利用2006年《IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》提供的清单编制法核算能源,工业过程和产品使用,农业、林业和其他土地利用,废弃物和其他这六个方面CO2和CH4的排放。以江苏省为例,对江苏省2005-2010年的CO2和CH4的排放进行了全面的核算,然后利用核算结果通过事前检验、事中检验和事后检验更严谨的检验了灰色预测模型GM（1,1）对于江苏省的适用性,在此基础上利用灰色预测对江苏省碳排放量进行了预测,并计算了相应的碳排放强度,通过图表法更直观的对江苏省碳排放量变化和碳排放强度变化的情况进行了对比分析,为相关政府部门提供参考和借鉴。

英文摘要：

This paper systematically estimates CO2 and CH4 emission of energy,industrial processes and the use of products,agriculture,forestry and the use of other land,waste and other based on the inventory method of the ＂2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories＂.Taking Jiangsu Province as an example,accounting CO2 and CH4 emission of Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2010,and then testing the applicability of the Grey Forecast for Jiangsu Province based on prior test and after test by the calculated result.On the basis of empirical analysis of model fitting,the paper forecasts carbon emissions of Jiangsu Province and calculates the carbon emission intensity.The paper provides a reference for the relevant government departments by analyzing the change of carbon emissions and carbon emissions based on the charts.