定量风险评估是风险评估发展的主要趋势。文中结合作者在码头工程项目质量管理方面的研究,以码头营运时期存在的各种风险为例,对码头的运营过程进行深入分析,从码头风险事故识别、分析以及风险管理、应急预案等方面对现役的码头进行风险评价。首先找出潜在的风险事件及相关风险因素,然后对风险事件的模糊概率和损失程度后果进行量化,最后依据风险评价结果对需要控制的风险事件给出控制措施。
Quantitative risk evaluation is the main trend in the development of risk evaluation. The study focuses on quality control of construction project, the potential risks in operation phase of dock are evaluated. Several factors including risk accidents identification of dock,analysis and risk management,emergency plan are analyzed. Firstly, potential risks and the related risk factors are identified. Secondly, the fuzzy probability of the risk and the extent of loss are quantified. Finally, control measures are provided according to estimation results.