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中文摘要：
运用QRA技术（定量风险评估）对导管架下水过程进行深入分析,提出风险概率评价模型和事故损失综合评估方法.首先辨识潜在的风险事件及相关风险因素,然后量化风险事件的模糊概率和损失程度,最后依据风险量化结果和ALARP（as low as reasonably practically）原则对需要控制的风险事件给出控制措施.通过定量风险分析,达到及时查找并消除各方面事故隐患的目的.
英文摘要：
Launching the jacket from a barge is an advanced jacket installation method. There are many techniqcal risks during launch and self-upending of deep water jackets. The purpose of this study is to apply the technique of quantitative risk assessment to launch and self-upending of jackets. Firstly the latent risk events as well as the risk factors are found. Then the fuzzy frequency of each risk event is able to be quantified by using the general fuzzy assessment, and finally a new method is developed to calculate the comprehensive loss of the potential accident. Based on the result of the risk appraisal, risk measures are provided for the risk source that should be controlled. The aim is to help find and thereby get rid of the risk sources.
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