中文摘要：

提出了一种基于模糊推理系统的故障树分析方法.针对故障树的底事件发生概率存在一定的不确定性,在以往研究基础上,采用模糊数表示底事件的发生概率.同时,由于故障树分析中原因事件和结果事件之间的因果关系可能存在一定的不确定性,将模糊推理系统应用于故障树分析之中.根据原因事件和结果事件之间不同的逻辑关系,采用了不同的推理算法,并且推理算法保证了推理结果的正规性.船舶设备故障分析的计算实例表明所述分析方法具有可行性.总之,该研究为系统可靠性分析提供了一种新方法.

英文摘要：

A new kind offault tree analysis based on fuzzy reasoning was proposed in this paper. On the basis of some former researches, fuzzy numbers was adopted to indicate the probabilities of bottom events to deal with the uncertainties existing in estimation of the probabilities. At the same time, uncertainties existing in the relation between causal events and resultant events were taken into account, and a fuzzy reasoning system was applied to fault tree analysis .According to different logic gate in fault tree analysis, the fuzzy reasoning system adopted different reasoning methods. As a fuzzy number, the result of the fuzzy reasoning is a normal fuzzy set. The fault tree analysis based on fuzzy reasoning proved feasible by an example of fault analysis of ship equipment. In conclusion, the research supplies a new method for the reliability analysis of the system..