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中文摘要：
用台站观测逐日降水资料和热带测雨卫星观测降水资料，对我国南海地区降水季节演变特征分析发现，与我国大部分地区不同，南海地区降水季节峰值是在秋季，主要集中在8～10月，且降水量年际变化大。环流场的合成分析表明，南海地区秋季中层500hPa有利的副高位置和低层低压系统的活动和维持是形成这一地区显著秋雨的主要原因。而由于副高的位置受热带太平洋海温影响较大，分析发现Nifi03．4的海温指数对该区域降水有很好的指示意义。8～10月Nino3．4指数和同期海南岛站点平均降水量之间的相关能够达到-0．47，超前3个月（即5～7月）的Nino3．4指数与8～10月海南岛站点平均降水量的相关亦能达到-0．43。从跨季度气候预测的角度来考虑，5～7月的Nifi03．4指数可以作为预测8～10月南海秋雨的重要参考指标。
英文摘要：
The precipitation characteristics over the South China Sea are analyzed by using daily station rain gauge data and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 product. It is found that rainfall over the South China Sea is at the maximum seasonal level in autumn, particularly from August to October, which is different from rainfall over most of the other regions in mainland China. Further analyses show that a subtropical high of 500 hPa and sustained low-level depression systems are key factors in the formation of autumn rainfall over the South China Sea. In addition, the location of the subtropical high is greatly influenced by sea surface temperature over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The rainfall amount over Hainan Island from August to October is highly correlated with the simultaneous and lead Nino3.4 indexes and the correlation coefficients between them can reach --0.47 and --0.43, respectively. As a result, the Nino3.4 index can be used for rainfall climate prediction during the August to October period over Hainan Island.
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