中文摘要：

全球气候变化是人类迄今面临的最重大、也是最为严重的全球环境问题,是21世纪人类面临的最复杂的挑战之一。已经观测到的气候变化影响是显著的、多方面的。各个领域和地区都存在有利和不利影响,但以不利影响为主。文章根据区域气候模式RegCM2模拟的气候情景,采用Lars Hein气候—旅游模型,研究气候增温情景对我国南方部分省份旅游流的可能影响。结果表明,与2008年相比,全球气候变化对研究区域年接待游客总量影响较小,但是在旅游流的季节影响分布上,差异较为明显。冬季旅游流基本呈上升趋势,而夏季则呈现出下降趋势,其中影响较大的省份分别是广东省和海南省,广东省影响最大,2月份增幅高达13.02%,8月份降幅高达13.62%。春季和秋季呈现不规律的过渡性变动,春季浙江省接待过夜游客数量呈明显上升趋势,而海南省呈下降趋势;秋季的情况与春季正好相反。

英文摘要：

Global climate change is so far the most important and serious global environmental problem as well as one of the most complicated challenges confronting humanity in the 21st century.The impact of global climate changes having been observed is significant and diversified.There exist both favorable and unfavorable impacts in different fields and areas,with the unfavorable impact as main point.The paper,in accordance with the simulated result of RegCM2 regional climate model,tries to study the possible impact of climate warming on the tourist flows in part of China＇s southern provinces.The results indicate that compared with the year 2008,global climate changes exert smaller impact on the total number of annual tourist flows,but the differences are more significant in terms of the distribution of seasonal impact of tourist flows.Winter tourist flows are basically on the rise,while tourist flows in summer are on the decline,with greater impact in Guangdong province and Hannan province.In Guangdong the total number of visitors rose by 13.02% in Feburary while in August visitors declined by 13.62%.The tourist flows presented irregular and transitional changes in spring and autumn.In spring,the number of tourists was significantly on the rise in Zhejiang province,while tourists were on the decline in Hainan province.The situation in autumn is just the reverse.