中文摘要：

在我国智能公交体系快速发展的背景下，公交车到站准点率要求越来越严格。为减少公交车道路运行延误的时间，提高到站准点率，从城市路网中交通流多数为问断流的特点出发，结合目前城市道路中所使用的交通流采集设备及信号控制设备，研究了基于道路交通延误的公交事件预测模型与算法，从而进行公交延误事件的自动预测，使我国的公共交通进一步智能化。通过该预测模型，可以较好地预测到公交延误事件的发生，给调度人员的应急调度处理赢得宝贵时间，从而减少了公交车运行的延误时间，更好地满足了乘客对公交出行时间越来越短的要求。

英文摘要：

With the rapid development of intelligent transportation system in our country, Public transport on-time arrival rate are more stringent. In order to reduce the running time delay and improve the on-time arrival rate, this paper from the point of view that most urban road network is discrete traffic flows, and combined with traffic signal control equipment and traffic flow collection device. We have a research on the public transport incident prediction model and algorithm based on the road traffic delays, and then it can carry out an automatic prediction of the public transport incident delay. It makes our public transportation more intelligent. This model could make a much better prediction and save much more time for dealing with the emergency, then reduce the running delays and better meet the passengers＇ demand on a shorter travel time.