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中文摘要：
针对现有换道模型对实际驾驶员特性考虑不足,通过对合流区实际交通数据进行分析,研究车辆间间距、相对速度、强制性换道点等因素对合流区车辆换道的影响,提出动态换道概率。在Na Sch模型基础之上对合流区不同车道车辆设定跟车和换道规则并建立合流区动态换道概率模型。运用换道概率的元胞自动机模型仿真分析了不同密度情况下,合流区各车道流量和换道率的变化。仿真结果表明：合流区域内并道车道对相邻车道通行能力和换道影响较大,对内侧车道影响较小,能较好的反应合流区驾驶员行为特性。
英文摘要：
The existing lane-changing models consider less of actual driver feature. In the paper,we analyzed the influence of vehicles distance,relative velocity and mandatory lane changing point on merging area vehicles based on the actual traffic data,came up with dynamic lane-changing probability through the analysis of real data,and set car flowing rules and lane-changing rules on the base of Na Sch model. Then we built dynamic probability lane-changing model in the merging area. Finally,we simulated the change of flux and lane-changing rate under different density through cellular automaton of lane-changing probability. The result indicates that the merging lane has a strong influence on adjacent lane,but weak on the inside lane. Better response of diver feature is obtained in the merging area.
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