判别国际资本市场波动对我国的冲击路径,防范国际金融风险冲击是维护国家金融安全的重要前提。国际资本流动、信息跨境传递以及投资者情绪的相互影响均可能在国家间传导金融风险。本文运用多元GARCH模型(BEKK)实证检验了美国资本市场波动和人民币汇率变化对我国资本市场的冲击传导关系,进而判别国际资本流动是否会对我国资本市场形成冲击。实证结论表明:汇率市场的风险波动程度显著低于资本市场,且美国资本市场与人民币汇率、我国资本市场与人民币汇率均存在显著的双向"风险溢出"效应。由此可以推断,国际资本市场风险通过国际资本流动的途径对我国市场形成冲击的事实。
Resisting the impact of international financial risk is the key strategy for domestic financial stability.The international capital flows,information transmission and investors' sentiment could result in clearly abnormal volatility in domestic stock market of different countries.In this article,we analyze the risk transmission path among the US stock market,exchange market and domestic stock market,employing the Multivariate GARCH(BEKK) model,which is helpful to justifying whether the international capital and exchange rates fluctuations would negatively affect domestic financial market.At last,we come to several main conclusions as follows: 1) the magnitude of the risk in the exchange market is much lower than that in the stock market;2) there is evidently significant "Spillover Effect" between the US stock market and the exchange market,as well as between the exchange market and domestic stock market,which suggests that the international capital flows is one of the important paths which the foreign financial risk impacts domestic stock market.