中文摘要：

伴随中国经济增速放缓迹象的不断出现和强化，什么能够成为中国经济继续健康发展的核心动力已经成为学术界争论的焦点．而这一问题判别的最重要科学依据则应该是资源要素的配置效率分析。本文采用新近发展的空间面板模型．在测度要素配置对本地经济发展直接影响效应的同时．还测度了要素配置对其他地区经济的间接溢出效应，以判别劳动力、固定资产投资和技术进步等资源要素对中国经济增长的实际影响效果。结果表明：在过去的13年间，劳动力对三次产业发展的促进作用均不显著；固定资产投资对第二产业的正向直接效应显著．但伴随着显著且更加严重的负向溢出效应，总效应显著为负。而对第三产业的正向直接效应和正向总效应显著；技术进步对三次产业的促进效应均显著。由此可见，劳动力不是影响中国经济增长的核心动力，关于中国经济增长的“人口红利说”不存在有效的科学依据：固定资产投资仍然是中国经济增长行之有效的驱动力量。但不是在第二产业而是在第三产业：技术进步才是驱动中国经济健康持续增长的核心动力．同时也是中国实现产业升级的方向和必然的路径选择。

英文摘要：

Accompanied by constantly emerging signs that China＇s economy began to slow down, the issue what could be the core driving force of China＇s economic growth has come to the limelight of the academic debating. The most important scientific rule to judge this issue, however, ought to be allocation efficiency analysis of resources factors. In order to test the real influence effects that labor force, fixed asset investment and technology progress and other resources factors on China＇s economic growth, this paper applies the latest developed spatial panel model to examine not only the direct influences effects that factors allocation on local economic development, but also indirect spillover effects that factors allocation on economy of other areas. The empirical evidence reveals the following results： Firstly, labor force did not boost three industries significantly in the past 13 years. Fixed asset investment has positive direct effects on the second industry. But it accompanied by significant and more serious negative spillover effects and the total effect is negative. Fixed asset investment has positive direct effects on the third industry and the total effect is significant positive. Last but not least, technology progress has significant positive influences on all three industries. Therefore, labor force is not the core driving force of China＇s economic growth and the term demographic dividend of China＇s economic growth exists no valid scientific basis. Fixed asset investment on the third industry instead of the second industry is still an effective driving force to China＇s economic growth. Technology progress is the core driving force to make China＇s economy grow constantly. It played on important role on industrial upgrading directions of China and is a necessity path choice.