中文摘要：

中国电力资源与负荷呈逆向分布,须通过跨区域调配实现电能的供需平衡。为理顺区域间能源生产、能源输送与经济发展系统之间的因果传递与反馈关系,综合考虑风电生产、煤炭价格波动、经济发展对能源价格的弹性、能源输送成本以及碳排放价格等因素,基于系统动力学模型对跨区域电力资源供需的均衡关系进行模拟仿真。仿真结果表明,煤炭的供需关系将通过价格机制影响经济发展,而风电通过缓解煤炭供应压力将在一定程度上正反馈于经济增长;此外,输电通道的建设可以提高风电的消纳能力,进而进一步促进经济发展。

英文摘要：

In China the distribution of the electric power source and the power load follows the regularity of reverse distribution,thus the supply-demand equilibrium of electric power should be implemented by inter-regional deployment.To rationalize the relationship of causality and feedback among inter-regional energy source production,energy source transportation and economic development,overall considering such factors as the production of wind power generation,the price fluctuation of the coal,the elasticity of economic development to the price of energy source,the cost of energy source transportation and the price of carbon emission,based on the system dynamics model the supply-demand equilibrium of inter-regional electric power resourceis simulated.Simulation results show that the relationship between coal supply and demand impacts the economic development by price mechanism,and through relieving the pressure of coal supply the wind power generation plays the role of positive feedback to economic growthto a certain extent;besides,the construction of power transmission lines can enhance the accommodation ability of wind power to further promote economic development.