煤电能源供应链的风险管理问题是保障中国能源安全的重要基石。本文针对中国煤电能源供应链的绩效和风险管理,研究了煤电能源供应链风险管理的风险评价测度问题。基于供应链部门关系的界定,利用价值驱动树方法对风险源传递关系进行梳理,构建中国煤电能源供应链指标体系(C-ESCRMIS)。通过社会问卷调查的方式收集样本,进行主成分分析,建立结构方程模型(SEM);为测量指标权重,对风险因子载荷分析、二级因子路径系数进行计算;基于指标相关性的指标权重确定方法 (CRITIC),得到煤炭供应链风险评价测度模型(C-ESCRE)。结果表明:现阶段,中国煤电能源供应链的主要风险源为政策风险、意外灾害和市场需求风险。节点企业可根据测度模型,对其供应链风险进行评价分析。最后进行了案例分析,以期为政府宏观调控、供应链协同管理以及企业内部控制提供参考。
Risk management of Coal - Electricity supply chain is an important comerstone for China's energy security. With respect to the performance and risk management of Coal - Electricity supply chain risk management in China, this article is focused on the issues of Coal- Electricity supply chain risk evaluation. Based on defining the relationships among the supply chain sectors, using Value Driver Tree to sort out the risk sources, Coal- Electricity Supply Chain Risk Management Index System is built. Social questionnaires samples are collected to introduce a principal component analysis, and Structural Equation Modehng is employed. With respect to the weight of index, the factor loading and the path coefiqcient of risks are discussed at the same time. According to the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation method, a model of Coal- Electricity supply chain risk evaluation is built. The results show that: currently, the main risk sources of China's Coal- Electricity supply chain are policy risks, accidental disasters and market demands. The enterprises in supply chain would evaluate the risks by using the C - ESCRE. Finally, we illustrate a case study just to provide a reference for the government's macro- control, supply chain management and enterprise internal control.