中文摘要：

本文试图建立现代服务业主导产业选择的指标体系,在对我国服务业各细分行业的资本存量进行估算的基础上计算我国现代服务业各细分行业的全要素生产率,然后综合多指标因素,采用层次分析法对我国现代服务业主导产业进行选择,最终确定租赁和商务服务业,信息传输、计算机服务和软件业,教育、文化艺术和广播电影电视业,金融、保险业,批发和零售贸易餐饮业;交通运输、仓储及邮电通信业为我国现代服务业的主导产业,并对促进我国现代服务业主导产业发展提出了相关的政策建议。

英文摘要：

The paper will establish selecting index system of leading industry of modern service,calculate total factor productivity of segment industry of modern service in China based on its estimating capital stock,combine with multi-index factor,and identify the leading modern service industry by analytic hierarchy process,finally argue that the leading modern service industry includes leasing and commercial services,information transmission,computer services and software,education,culture and arts,radio,film and television,finance and insurance,wholesale and retail trade and catering services,transport,storage,post and telecommunication services and put forward some policy suggestions to promote the development of the leading modern service industry.