中文摘要：

针对天然气项目成本与收入构成框架,基于项目收益影响因素因果关系分析,构建天然气PPP项目收益系统动力学模型,并运用Vensim PLE软件,结合已建成投入使用的西北加气站作为研究案例,进行模型有效性检验、仿真模拟与灵敏度分析。结果表明,特许期、特许价格、年加气量和私人部门期望收益率对项目收益产生综合相互作用的显著影响,从而提出有关特许经营协议定性与定量相结合的措施建议。

英文摘要：

According to the cost and income structure of gas projects and the causality analysis of project revenue,system dynamic analysis on revenue for PPP gas projects uses the software of Vensim PLE for the model effectiveness test,to analogue simulation and sensitivity analysis with the combination of northwest stations case studies. Simulation results demonstrate that concession period,concession price,gas volume annually and expected yield of the private sector have a comprehensive effect on project revenue,and then it makes qualitative and quantitative suggestions of franchise agreement.