中文摘要：

文章基于实测数据，定量分析了风电场输出功率在一年中同时刻的概率分布特性，分别采用傅里叶级数、多项式函数和高斯函数等对风电场输出功率同时刻概率分布进行拟合，并研究其精确拟合方法，将和方差、均方根误差和确定系数作为评价指标对上述拟合函数进行误差分析，发现3阶傅里叶级数能较好地描述同时刻下风功率的概率分布。最后，利用不同年份的样本验证该拟合方法的通用性。结果表明，3阶傅里叶级数在描述同时刻下风电场输出功率概率分布特征方面具有较高精度及普遍适用性。

英文摘要：

Based on the measured data, this paper quantitatively analyzes the probability density characteristics of the output power of wind farm at a certain time in a year. The Fourier series, polynomial function and Gauss function are used to carry out fittings of wind farm power probability distribution at the same moment respectively,and the precise fitting method are studied further, the error analyses of the fitting functions above are carried out by the evaluation indexes such as SSE, RMSE and coefficient of determination, it is found thatthat the third-order Fourier series can better describe the probability distribution of wind power at the same moment. Finally, the samples from different years are used to check the generality of the fitting method. The results show that the third-order Fourier series describes the same moment wind probability characteristics with high precision and universal applicability.