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中文摘要：
客观准确地评价区域管制系统运行风险是保障其运行安全的重要手段。基于区域管制运行过程角度结合MMEM模型,从管制员、空管设备、航路天气、扇区交通特征和管理五方面构建了运行风险的评价指标体系。综合层次分析法和熵权法确定评价指标的权重,并建立基于可拓学的风险评价模型,通过计算评价指标与各风险等级间的关联度来确定风险等级。用实例验证了模型的合理性。
英文摘要：
Objective and accurate assessment of area control system is very important way to gurantee the safety operation. First of all,based on operational processes couple with the MMEM,risk assessment indexes system is set up from the aspects of controller,ATM equipment,air route weather,sector traffic feature and management. Secondly,using analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） and entropy determine the combination weight of the assessment indexes,and set up risk assessment model based on Extension theory. Risk grade can be obstained by the correlation function in extension set theory. Finally,using an example testifies the feasibility of this model.
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