中文摘要：

研究目的：在土地市场行情的动态性和不确定性环境下，探讨把握经营性土地出让相机选择策略，分析管理柔性以及不确定性的信息带来的土地价值。研究方法：文献资料法、实物期权法。研究结果：土地市场的不确定性增加了经营性土地出让的机会价值；经营性土地出让机会损失提高，期权价值下降；无风险利率提高，期权价值增加，政府土地购置成本降低，但不会降低其回报。研究结论：在市场行情不确定的环境下，政府应持续持有经营性土地储备，而不是卖空；机会损失越大，商用用地储备量应减持；利率调整对开发商影响较大，对政府土地纯收益影响较小，经营性土地供应政策应结合利率调整来调控土地市场。F301．2

英文摘要：

The purpose of this paper is to explore the temporal optimization of business land supply and analyze the land value increase due to land management flexibility and the information uncertainty. The methods include documentation and real option approach. The results show that the uncertainty of land market induces option value. The option value decreases if the opportunity of business land conveyance becomes less. The option value increases if the risk-free rate rises. Furthermore, the acquisition cost of local government decreases but its investment returns will not be less. The paper concludes that local government should hold the commercial land reserved and not supply them in short run. If the opportunity of selling land decreases the government should reduce the reserved land. The adjustment of interest rate has much effect on developers, but it has little effects on the return of the government. Therefore, it is necessary for the government to integrate the land policy with the adjustment of interest rate to adjust the land market.