通过构建名义GDP、财政支出、M2、CPI这样四个变量的增长率的VAR模型,对我国内生经济增长下财政与货币政策产生的动态效应进行了分析。通过分析认为:在经济衰退时,如果政府采取紧缩的货币、财政政策,势鼹导致更为严重的经济衰退。但如果政府基干收入-支出模型或IS-LM模型使用财政、货币政策来调节总需求,其结果也很有可能会导致通货膨胀或滞胀。最后为宏观经济政策的制定与实施提出了相关的政策建议。
In this paper we made a VAR model including the four variables, such as the growth rate of nominal GDP, fiscal expenditure, M2, and consumer price index,to analyze the dynamic effects of monetary and fiscal policies under the condition of Endogenous Economic Growth in China.Through our analysis,we conclude that in a declining economy, if government change the aggregate demand based on NI-AE model or IS-LM model, it will lead to inflation or stagflation.In the end,we offer some suggestions for macroeconomic policies.