中文摘要：

井下机电安全是生产中不可忽视的一个重要环节,为分析机电事故的影响因素的敏感性,建立井下机电事故率预测模型。采用多元统计分析和敏感度分析的方法,对收集的21组机电事故统计数据进行分析。分析结果显示：影响机电事故的五个影响因素的敏感性从高到低的排名是：机电检修频率;装备质量;人员素质;管理水平差异;井下环境。采用敏感度分析检测模型对采用多元统计分析建立的机电事故率预测模型进行了改进,改进后的计算模型精度较高,计算结果较为可靠,对矿井生产中机电事故预测、评价和改进安全生产具有非常重要的指导意义。

英文摘要：

Electrical safety is an important link in the production, which is used to analyze the sensitivity of the factors affecting the mechanical and electrical accidents, and to establish the prediction model of the downhole accident rate. In this paper, the statistical analysis of 21 groups of mechanical and electrical accident data is carried out by means of multivariate statistical analysis and sensitivity analysis. The results show that the sensitivity of the four factors affecting the mechanical and electrical accidents is from high to low ： the frequency of electromechanical maintenance ; the quality of equipment ; the quality of personnel ; the difference of management level; the underground environment. By using sensitivity analysis model to analyze the establishment of monitoring the electromechanical accident rate prediction model was improved by using multivariate statistical model, the improved calculation accuracy is higher, more reliable calculation results, the electromechanical accident in coal mine production prediction, evaluation and improvement of safety production has a very important guiding significance.