中文摘要：

本文针对自然、社会、经济和环境系统的可持续性，建立涵盖四个层次（目标层、准则层、要素层和指标层）的区域水资源可持续性评价指标体系。鉴于复杂水资源系统中的不确定性及相应风险，引入模糊集理论中的隶属函数来描述指标标准值，利用三角模糊数来构造层次分析法中的成对比较矩阵，引入可靠性、弹性和脆弱性三个风险性指标来综合表征系统的可持续性，最后加权求和计算区域水资源可持续性指数。北京市水资源可持续性评价应用研究结果表明，1989—2008年，北京市水资源系统可持续性一直处于上升的趋势，但仍存在一些相对劣势指标需要进一步改善。

英文摘要：

This paper establishes an index system of regional water resources sustainability on four levels of objective, criterion, factor and index, considering four aspects of natural, social, economic and environmental sub-systems. This system uses a membership function of fuzzy set theory to represent index criteria and introduces triangular fuzzy numbers into the pair-wise comparison matrix in AHP method, so that a complex system with significant uncertainties can be described. It includes three indicators of risk-based performance, i.e. reliability, resilience and vulnerability, and by assigning weights to them their weighted sum is an overall indicator of sustainability. Application of the system to Beijing city reveals that the regional water resources sustainability remains low due to some crucial negative factors, though it was continuously increasing from 1989 to 2008.