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中文摘要：
选取变压器油纸绝缘系统作为评估的对象,取热点温度（HST）为核心点,结合Weibull分布和Arrhenius反应定律,建立基于HST的变压器老化故障模型,该模型用于描述变压器的老化过程,目的是计算绕组HST并求解变压器油纸绝缘系统的故障率。然后,基于电力变压器油中溶解气体分析（DGA）数据,结合灰色理论对模型进行修正,确保评估值能很好地跟踪并反映变压器的实际可靠性水平。最后,以江门供电局数据作为实例分析,验证了所建立模型的有效性,通过分析可知该模型能够很好地跟踪变压器的运行状态。
英文摘要：
With the oil-paper insulation system of transformer as the evaluation target and the HST（HotSpot Temperature） as the core point,a HST-based transformer aging fault model is built according to theWeibull distribution and Arrhenius reaction law,which is used to describe the transformer aging process andcalculate the winding HST for obtaining the failure rate of transformer o/l-paper insulation system. Based onthe data of DGA（Dissolved Gas Analysis） in power transformer oil,the built model is corrected accordingto the grey theory to ensure the evaluation better tracking the actual reliability level of transformer. As anexample,the actual data of Jiangmen power-supply bureau are analyzed to verify the validity of the builtmodel and the results show the built model can well track the operational status of transformer.
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