中文摘要：

采用边际能源消耗的分析方法研究中国能源消耗与经济增长之间的关系，借助于SPSS软件对不同研究区域的样本数据进行线性与非线性回归分析，模拟能源消费历程，预测全国及29个省级行政单位边际能源消耗变化率为0的年份（即经济增长，但能源消耗不增长），并得出能源消耗时空特征的结论。在时间发展维度上，研究时间段内我国能源消耗经历了4个阶段，整体趋势呈“双驼峰”状，目前我国处于能源消费的第四阶段，预计还要经过16年的时间才能达到能源消耗最佳状态；在空间分布层面上，边际能源消耗变化率等级大致沿西北一东南线阶梯状由内陆到沿海逐渐提高，能源减耗潜力逐渐增大。提出促进极限值尽早出现的政策与建议。

英文摘要：

The concept of marginal energy consumption is introduced into analyze the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. By means of linear and non-linear regressive analysis on sample data of different research areas with SPSS software, energy consumption process is simulated. And the time is forecasted when the rate of marginal energy consumption will reach 0 in China and its 29 provincial administrative units （ economic growth with no energy consumption increase）. There is spatio-temporal characteristics in energy consumption. From the time dimension, the energy consumption in China has experienced four phases, its overall trend is like the shape of double hump in the studied time period, now it is in the fourth phase, it is expected that our energy consumption can get the best state 16 years later; In the spatial distribution level, the grade of the change rate of marginal energy consumption increases gradually along the northwest-the southeast line ladder from the inland to the coastal areas approximately, and the potential of the reduction of energy consumption increases gradually. At last, policies and suggestions are put forth in order to promote the ultimate value to appear as early as possible.