应用Refined Laspeyres指数分解模型,对中国能源强度变动的主导效应进行研究。研究结果显示,产业内部尤其是工业部门能源强度的下降是1980~2005年总能源强度显著改进的主因,但是由于存在二元经济结构转换特征,产业结构变动无法从整体上对能源强度改进产生积极的影响。计量检验结果也显示,重工业比重的上升对分解模型所分析的强度效应以及总能源强度具有很大的负面影响,这也是2001~2004年能源强度出现反弹的诱因。
This paper adopts Refined Laspeyres index decomposition model to analyze the dominant effect of China' s energy intensity change, The result is that the decline of industrial energy intensity caused the improvement of total energy intensity during 1980 - 2005. However, the alteration of industry structure can' t play a positive role in the improvement of energy intensity for the sake of dual economic structure transform. At the same time, the author finds the rise of heavy industry proportion has the negative effect on the total energy intensity and the intensity effect, which is the reason of the rebound of energy intensity during 2001 - 2004.