通过模型推导,选取人口数量、物价指数、收入水平、贷款利率水平及季节虚拟变量5个指标作为方程初始导人自变量,与房地产价格进行初步多元线性回归分析;并检验和修正了回归结果的自相关和多重共线性,通过自变量的分析与筛选,按照逐步回归法,最终选取出3个自变量与房地产价卞备建立多元线性回归方程,找出影响我国房地产价格波动的最主要因素即人口数量和物价指数,并结合我国情况对其进行原因和结论分析。
Through model derivation, this paper selects five indicators, including population, price index, income level, loan interest rates and seasonal dummy variables, as initial independent delivery variables of the equation and real estate prices as dependent variables for preliminary multiple linear regression analysis. After testing and revising autocorrelation and muhi-colinearity by stepwise regression method, it analyzes and filtrate independent variables, and ultimately establishes multiple linear regression equation with three independent variables and real estate prices. It finds out that the main influencing factors on China' s real estate price fluctuations are population size and price index. Finally, combining with China' s situation, the paper analyzes the reasons and conclusions.