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中文摘要：
根据2000-2010年跨国面板数据,利用随机效应tobit模型研究粮食、环境和能源对全球生物燃料替代化石燃料使用的影响。研究发现：粮食安全程度高的国家生物燃料替代程度较高,而生物燃料的过度发展有可能导致＂与粮争地＂和国际粮食市场价格上涨,从而危及粮食安全;碳排放强度能促进生物燃料替代水平的提高,但前提是该国具有较高的国民收入水平;能源安全考虑仅仅在发达国家内能影响生物燃料替代。相关结论为各国制定适合本国粮食安全状况和经济发展水平的生物燃料替代目标提供参考依据。
英文摘要：
Based on a panel dataset from 2000 to 2010,this paper utilizes a random-effect tobit model to analyze impacts of food,environment and energy factors on replacement of biofuels for fossil fuels. The results show that： Countries with better food security have higher replacement rate. But radical development of biofuels may lead to ＂competition with food for land＂and price increase of world food market,and hence endanger food security. Carbon emission may lead to high replacement of biofuels,conditional on a relatively high national income per capita. Energy security may be an relevant issue for developed countries. The results provide support for countries to make decisions on targets of biofuels development.
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