中文摘要：

基于金沙江流域1966～2010年降水和径流资料．采用单变量Mann—Kendall（MK）趋势分析法、突变检验法和多变量MK法对金沙江流域近几十年来的降水和径流变化进行了非一致性分析。结果表明：金沙江流域年降水和年径流整体呈上升趋势，特别是从20世纪90年代之后增大趋势较为明显。其中金沙江流域中游以上区域的年降水通过显著性检验，上升趋势较为明显，而各个水文站点的年径流均未通过显著性检验，仅存在微弱的上升趋势。中游攀枝花站集水区域的面平均年降水趋势存在突变点，在1997年之后显著增加．而其年径流则不存在突变点，其他站点面平均年降水和年径流趋势都不存在突变。此外，中游龙街站集水区域的面平均年降水和年径流通过多变量MK显著性检验，表明龙街站降水和径流联合变量呈显著增加趋势。

英文摘要：

According to the annual precipitation and runoff data from 1966 to 2010, this paper analyzed the inconsistency of precipitation and runoff in the Jinshajiang River Basin by using univariate Mann-Kendall test and multivariate Mann-Kendall test. The results show that there＇s an increasing trend in the annual precipitation and runoff in the Jinshajiang River Basin, especially from the 1990s. The precipitation in the middle reaches of the Jinshajiang River Basin shows an obvious upward tendency by passing the MK significance test. The mutation point appears in the precipitation at the Panzhihua Station, which results in an obvious increase after 1997. There＇s not any other mutation points in both precipitation and runoff at the other stations. In addition, by passing the muhivariate MK significance test, the joint variables of the Longjie Station＇s precipitation and runoff show a significant increase, while the other stations fail the test.