中文摘要：

载人登月转移轨道具有飞行时间长，动力学模型复杂，非线性强且变系数的特点，而载人登月工程对转移轨道可靠性要求极高，研究地月转移轨道偏差传播机理和轨道稳健性设计不仅具有工程意义，更具有探索地月空间复杂引力场对轨道偏差作用的科学意义。本文首先分析了日地月中心引力和地球J2项摄动等主要作用力对转移轨道偏差的作用范围与影响大小，其次提出了一种基于标称轨道数据的变系数非线性动力学系统偏差传播机理解析分析方法，最后构建了基于偏差传播矩阵的转移轨道稳健性评价指标，并基于NSGA-II （Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithms）算法求解了载人登月转移轨道稳健性优化设计问题。仿真结果表明，本文提出的偏差传播机理分析方法能快速准确地求解出载人登月转移轨道偏差传播矩阵，利用偏差传播矩阵进行协方差分析和中途修正脉冲计算是简单准确的，考虑稳健性的转移轨道优化设计可以提高标称轨道品质。

英文摘要：

Earth-moon transfer orbit for manned lunar landing needs a long flight time, complex, nonlinear and variable coefficient dynamics model, and asks for a high reliability. Analysis of deviation propagation mechanism and robust design of transfer orbit are investigated in this paper. It is not only practical for projecting, but also significant for exploring the role of earth-moon space gravitational field upon transfer orbit deviation. This paper analyses firstly the boundary and the amplitude of the sun, earth, and moon central gravitation, the earth J2 perturbation that affect the transfer orbit deviation transmission. And then a method to analyse the deviation propagation mechanism based on nominal orbital data is obtained analytically. A robust indicator of transfer orbit based on deviation transition matrix is proposed,and a robust optimization design method that employs NSGA-II（nondominated sorting genetic algorithms） for earth-moon transfer orbit with robust indicator is proposed.Simulation shows that the analysis of transfer orbit deviation propagation mechanism can obtain earth-moon transfer orbit deviation propagation matrix quickly and precisely, and the deviation propagation matrix can be used to obtain the covariance matrix and mid-course correction delta V analytically and exactly. The quality of nominal transfer orbit is improved by optimizing with robust indicator.