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中文摘要：
本文以再入段弹道预报为背景，主要解决多个模型关键参数未知情况下，再入大气层机动弹头的弹道精确外推问题。文章细化了再入段机动弹头的建模过程，建立了包含导引过程的有控机动弹道数学模型，并利用UKF非线性滤波算法估算模型中的弹道系数、落点信息等关键参数，最后进行弹道的精确外推。仿真算例表明，该方法能在弹道系数、落点信息等参数未知的情况下进行有效快速的弹道预报，具有较好的预报精度。
英文摘要：
To address the inaccuracy problem of reentry trajectory prediction, a method for predicting trajectory of reentry target within the atmosphere with both ballistic coefficient and other un- known parameters based on UKF filtering algorithm is presented. Also a more real and exact mathematical model of reentry phase including the guided controlling model and the relative movement model between the warhead and the target is established. On the basis of the reentry model and the results of UKF filter processing, the trajectory extrapolation models are built to forecast the motion state of maneuver warhead, and more precise predicted results are gotten. The simulation results prove the validity of the method.
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