中文摘要：

为有效预测船舶引航员作业中的安全可靠性,预防引航事故,基于其职业特点,提出了情绪状态、注意力、心情状态等动态和静态评价指标各5个,并采用专家评价或自评的方式对指标赋值。采用专家调查、DEMATEL方法,研究、验证了指标的合适性和指标间关系的正确性,并确定了各指标的权重。结果表明：引航员心情状态的权重最大（0.123 6）,基本生理素质的权重最小（0.082 6）;最后通过案例分析,得到某一级引航员的可靠性值为91.342 5。引航员在工作中有良好的心理和生理状态以及良好的操作技能,有助于引航员可靠性的提高,从而减少引航事故的发生。

英文摘要：

In order to effectively foresee ship pilot reliability during pilotage operation,dynamic and static indexes,each of 5,with their evaluation ways by experts or by themselves were proposed based on the specialty of pilot occupation,such as emotional state,attention,mood state.These indexes＇ appropriateness,correctness of relationship between one another and their respect weights were validated by using experts＇ survey and DEMATEL.It gave that the weight of pilot＇s mood state is the max.0.123 6,while that of basic physiological state is the min.0.082 6.Finally,the reliability of a certain first-class pilot amounting to 91.342 5 was given in case study.Conclusively,pilot having sound mental/physical qualities and good skills during pilotage operation is to assist in improving their reliability,so as to reduce pilotage accidents.