中文摘要：

本文采用景气指数等方法分析了物价的周期波动特征，并进行了物价走势的预测。结论认为，本轮物价波动中，PPI的波动幅度大于CPI，食品价格回落和输入型通胀压力逐渐减小等因素对CPI下行贡献度较高。本轮物价周期的下降阶段可能持续到2012年四季度，预计2012年CPI上涨率为2．6％左右，处于适度增长区间。政府应重点从原材料和农产品等供给面防范物价反弹。

英文摘要：

Based on the methods including climate index, this study analyzed the price cycle movement characteristics and forecasted the price trend. The results showed that the fluctuation amplitude of PPI was greater than that of CPI in the current cycle of price fluctuation. Many factors including the falling food price and the decreasing imported inflation pressure contributed to the decline of CPI remarkably. The decline phase of the current round of price cycle may continue until the last quarter of 2012 or even later. The CPI growth rates may be 2.6% in 2012 and will be within the moderate growth interval. And the government should focus on the supply sides, for instance, raw materials and agricultural products, to prevent price from rebounding.