中文摘要：

舆情事件在网络传播的迅捷性、互动性与广泛性等特征催化下，风险不断上升，对社会稳定造成重大负面影响。鉴于网络舆情风险是多因素互动的结果，从舆情信息扩散效率、舆情主体传播能力、网络媒体作用水平、舆情受众共鸣程度等模块建立了系统动力学模型，并利用Vensim PLE进行了模拟仿真。仿真结果表明，舆情敏感度、主体活跃度、媒体影响力、受众参与度等变量与网络舆情风险存在较强互动关系，能够对后者产生较大影响。

英文摘要：

Network dissemination has the features of high-speed, interaction and wide-ranging. The rising risk of public opinion in the promotion of network dissemination would negatively affect social stability. This paper analyzes the various influences on risk of internet public opinion of diffusion efficiency of information, transmission capacity of subject, action level of network media and resonance degree of audience, and conducts a simulation based on the system dynamics model built around the above-mentioned dimensions applying Ven-sim PLE. The simulation results show that public opinion sensitivity, activity level of subject, influence of media and participation degree of audience have important influence on risk of internet public opinion.