基于装备试验评价的参数估计精度要求,对装备试验设计的需求进行了分析,并以成败型产品的试验设计为基础,论述了二项分布情形下参数估计精度的具体要求,给出参数估计验后概率要求下试验设计方案的求解思路,推导了共轭分布条件下可信区间宽度的计算公式,建立了可接受失效数与最小样本量之间关系的数学模型,给出了试验设计的MATLAB计算公式。最后,结合实例进行了理论和算法的验证。
Based on the parameter estimation accuracy requirements,the requirements for equipment test design were analyzed.For the demonstration test design,the requirements for the parameter estimation accuracy under the binomial distribution were studied.The solution of the demonstration test plan based on the parameter estimation and posterior probability was given.The computing formula of the width of confidence interval under conjugate distribution was deduced.The mathematical model of the relationship between the acceptable failures and the maximum sample size was established.The interface between graphics and MATLAB algorithm in the test design was implemented.Finally,the test design procedure was analyzed with an example.