中文摘要：

利用TIGGE（THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble）单中心集合预报系统（ECMWF、United Kingdom Meteorological Office、China Meteorological Administration和NCEP）以及由此所构成的多中心模式超级集合预报系统24小时地面日均气温预报,结合淮河流域地面观测率定贝叶斯模型平均（Bayesian model averaging,BMA）参数,从而建立地面日均气温BMA概率预报模型.由此针对淮河流域进行地面日均气温BMA概率预报及其检验与评估,结果表明BMA模型比原始集合预报效果好;单中心的BMA概率预报都有较好的预报效果,其中ECMWF最好.多中心模式超级集合比单中心BMA概率预报效果更好,采用可替换原则比普通的多中心模式超级集合BMA模型计算量小,且在上述BMA集合预报系统中效果最好.它与原始集合预报相比其平均绝对误差减少近7%,其连续等级概率评分提高近10%.基于采用可替换原则的多中心模式超级集合BMA概率预报,针对研究区域提出了极端高温预警方案,这对防范高温天气有着重要意义.

英文摘要：

Bayesian model averaging （BMA） probability forecast models were established through calibration of their parameters using 24-h ensemble forecasts of average daily surface air temperature provided by single-center ensemble prediction systems （EPSs） from the following agencies： the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF）, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office （UKMO）, the China Meteorological Administration （CMA）, and the United States National Center for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） and its multi-center model grand-ensemble （GE） EPSs in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble （TIGGE）, and observations in the Huaihe basin. The BMA probability forecasts of average daily surface air temperature for different EPSs were assessed by comparison with observations in the Huaihe basin. The results suggest that performance was better in the BMA predictive models than that in raw ensemble forecasts. The BMA predictive models for the four single-center EPSs all had good forecast skills; among them, the ECMWF EPS had the best. The BMA predictive models for the GE EPS performed better than any of the four single-center EPSs; those for the GE EPS with exchangeable members （EGE） quickened the computation rate and had the best forecast skill in BMA models for all EPSs. The mean absolute error （MAE） and continuous ranked probability score （CRPS） skills of the BMA models for EGE improved approximately 7% and 10%, respectively, compared with those of raw ensemble forecasts. On the basis of percentile forecasts from the BMA predictive models for EGE, an extreme scorching weather warning scheme was proposed in the study area, which is of significant importance for precautionary measures against such weather conditions.