新常态下房地产业发展与经济增长的关系出现了较大变化,利用GMM方法和VAR模型,对我国新分三类城市间房地产业、非房地产业与经济增长的相互关系进行研究.研究结果表明:第一,GMM模型指出新分一、二、三类城市对经济增长影响最大的因素分别为房地产需求、非房地产业和房地产行业;第二,脉冲响应分析表明对新分一、二、三类城市房地产需求、非房地产业发展和房地产发展最大的影响因素分别为非房地产行业和房地产需求.最后,根据研究结果,提出促进我国新分三类地区房地产业健康稳定协调发展的相关政策建议.
Under the new normal,the relationship between real estate industry and economic growth has changed greatly.With adoption of GMM method and VAR model,this paper probes the interrelationship among real estate industry,non-real estate industry and economic growth of areas classified in three new categories in China.The result of GMM model indicates that the greatest influence factors on economic growth in first class cities,second class cities and third class cities are real estate demand,non-real estate industry and real estate industry respectively.The result of impulse response analysis demonstrates that the most important influence factor of real estate purchase,non-real estate investment and real estate investment in these three class cities are non-real estate industry and real estate demand.Corresponding policies and recommendations to promote stable and healthy development of real estate industry in three new classification areas are finally proposed.