中文摘要：

突发事件相似度问题是我们运用已经发生的突发事件进行案例推理来辅助决策中亟待解决的难题。本文横向上以事件发生的时间先后顺序抽取关键决策点的情景构建情景链,纵向上提出＂事件-情景-应急处置任务-应急行动＂的结构化突发事件模型,在此基础上采用情景链相似度算法,解决寻找相似突发事件以及应对策略的问题。情景链相似包括突发事件的情景链和情景节点两个层面的相似,算法设计包括结构相似和语义概念上的相似。具体到某个情景的处置任务与应急行动的相似包括情景的处置任务集合整体相似和其中相似度最高的处置任务的应急行动相似。本研究丰富和拓展了突发事件＂情景-应对＂理论,为应急辅助决策方法提供技术输入。

英文摘要：

The similarity problem of emergency events is a difficult problem to be solved when the occurred emergency events in case-based reasoning technology are used for the auxiliary decision making.Thus in the horizontal aspect,the scenario chain is constructed in the order of time sequence based on the key decision points scenario.And in the vertical aspect,the constitutive model of ＂event-scenario-emergency tasksemergency action＂ is Put forward.Then based on the scenario chain similarity algorithm the problem of finding similar emergencies and coping strategies is solved.The similarity of the scenario chain includes the similarity of the whole scenario chain and scenario node.Considering that the emergency level effects the emergency response,the algorithm of the scenario chain similarity is designed,firstly from the similarity of the scenario chain structure in the two similar emergencies including the similarity of the emergency level and the number of nodes,then the similarity between semantic concepts including the scenario name set overall similarity and the attribute similarity of scenario node,and finally the two emergency scenario chains overall similarity with this formula：Sij= [w1,w2,w3]·[Sij^level,Sij^Num,Sij^Name]^T.When it comes to the similarity of disposal task and emergency action,the similarity of disposal tasks overall set under the specific situation is calculated,and then similarity of emergency actions which are selected from the highest similarity of the two disposal tasks is calculated,and finally set the union set of the highest similarity of emergency actions is set,and the whole through the formula：Sab= [w1,w2,w3]·[Sab^Task,Sab^task,Sab^Action]^T is gotten.This study enriches and develops the theory of＂scenario-response＂,and provides technical inputs for the emergency decision making method.