中文摘要：

讨论了多级树形供应链系统的牛鞭效应及其补偿问题，旨在提高供应链实际运行的效率。给出了若干牛鞭效应的量化指标，从定量的角度讨论了多级树形结构、竞争、信息传递、提前期、分配、预测等对牛鞭效应的影响作用。建立了针对信息传递、提前期、分配方式等的几种补偿方法，并结合常规补偿和模糊补偿的优点，设计了一种用模糊开关切换的综合补偿模型。对树形供应链在随机需求、竞争、促销、飞货情况下的补偿过程进行了仿真，验证了所提出的补偿方案的有效性。

英文摘要：

The bullwhip effect and compensation of a multi-echelon tree-type supply chain were discussed to improve actual operation efficiency of supply chain. A series of quantitative index of bullwhip effect was provided, by which, impacts of multi echelon tree-type topology structure, competition, information transformation, lead time, distribution, prediction on bullwhip were studied. Then the compensation methods for information transformation, teading time and distribution strategy were established, together with a fuzzy switch-cut synthetic compensator was designed combining with the metrics of normal compensator and fuzzy one. The whole compensation process under stochastic demand, competition, promotion and flying goods in tree-type supply chain was simulated, and effectiveness of the proposed compensation scheme was finally verified.